Synthesizing SoS Concepts for Use in Cost Estimation

Today’s need for more complex, capable systems in a short timeframe is leading many organizations towards the integration of existing systems into networkcentric, knowledge-based system-of-systems (SoS). Software and system cost model tools to date have focused on the software and system development activities of a single system. When viewing the new SoS architectures, one finds that the effort associated with the design and integration of these SoSs is not handled well, if at all, in current cost models. This paper includes (1) a comparison of various SoS definitions and concepts with respect to cost models, (2) a classification of these definitions in terms of product, process, and personnel focus, and (3) the definition of a set of discriminators for defining model boundaries and potential drivers for an SoS cost estimation model. Eleven SoS definitions are synthesized to provide reasonable coverage for different properties of SoS and illustrated in two examples

Lone parent obligations: destinations of lone parents after Income Support eligibility ends (Research report no 710)

"As part of the Lone Parent Obligations (LPO) changes, from November 2008 lone parents with a youngest child aged 12 or over were no longer entitled to receive Income Support (IS) solely on the grounds of being a lone parent. Since then, the age of the youngest child has reduced to ten and over from October 2009 and seven and over from October 2010. Lone parents who are no longer eligible for IS have been able to move to other benefits as appropriate, including Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA). The JSA regime has been amended to include flexibilities for parents, for example, in the hours of work they are required to seek. The aim of this evaluation is to explore whether and how lone parent employment interventions provide an effective incentive to look for paid employment, alongside an effective package of support for workless lone parents, to enable them to find, enter and sustain paid employment." - Page 1

RT137 ITAP: SysML Building Blocks for Cost Modeling

SERC Sponsor Research Review, December 3, 201

Cost and Risk Considerations for Test and Evaluation of Unmanned and Autonomous Systems of Systems

The evolutionary nature of Unmanned and Autonomous systems of systems (UASoS) acquisition needs to be matched by evolutionary test capabilities yet to be developed. As part of this effort we attempt to understand the cost and risk considerations for UASoS Test and Evaluation (T&E) and propose the development of a parametric cost model to conduct trade-off analyses. This paper focuses on understanding the need for effort estimation for UASoS, the limitations of existing cost estimation models, and how our effort can be merged with the cost estimation processes. We present the prioritization of both technical and organizational cost drivers. We note that all drivers associated with time constraints, integration, complexity, understanding of architecture and requirements are rated highly, while those regarding stakeholders and team cohesion are rated as medium. We intend for our cost model approach to provide management guidance to the T&E community in estimating the effort required for UASoS T&E

Effectiveness of kanban approaches in systems engineering within rapid response environments

AbstractEffective application of systems engineering in rapid response environments has been difficult, particularly those where large, complex brownfield systems or systems of systems exist and are constantly being updated with both short and long term software enhancements. This paper proposes a general case for solving this problem by combining a services approach to systems engineering with a kanban-based scheduling system. It provides the basis for validating the approach with agent-based simulations

Agile and Lean Systems Engineering: Kanban in Systems Engineering

This is the 2nd of two reports that were created for research on this topic funded through SERC. The first report, SERC-TR-032-1 dated March 13, 2012, constituted the 2011-2012 Annual Technical Report and the Final Technical Report of the SERC Research Task RT-6: Software Intensive Systems Data Quality and Estimation Research In Support of Future Defense Cost Analysis. The overall objectives of RT-6 were to use data submitted to DoD in the Software Resources Data Report (SRDR) forms to provide guidance for DoD projects in estimating software costs for future DoD projects. In analyzing the data, the project found variances in productivity data that made such SRDR-based estimates highly variable. The project then performed additional analyses that provided better bases of estimate, but also identified ambiguities in the SRDR data definitions that enabled the project to help the DoD DCARC organization to develop better SRDR data definitions. In SERC-TR-2012-032-1, the resulting Manual provided the guidance elements for software cost estimation performers and users. Several appendices provide further related information on acronyms, sizing, nomograms, work breakdown structures, and references. SERC-TR-2013-032-2 (current report), included the “Software Cost Estimation Metrics Manual.” This constitutes the 2012-2013 Annual Technical Report and the Final Technical Report of the SERC Research Task Order 0024, RT-6: Software Intensive Systems Cost and Schedule Estimation Estimating the cost to develop a software application is different from almost any other manufacturing process. In other manufacturing disciplines, the product is developed once and replicated many times using physical processes. Replication improves physical process productivity (duplicate machines produce more items faster), reduces learning curve effects on people and spreads unit cost over many items. Whereas a software application is a single production item, i.e. every application is unique. The only physical processes are the documentation of ideas, their translation into computer instructions and their validation and verification. Production productivity reduces, not increases, when more people are employed to develop the software application. Savings through replication are only realized in the development processes and on the learning curve effects on the management and technical staff. Unit cost is not reduced by creating the software application over and over again. This manual helps analysts and decision makers develop accurate, easy and quick software cost estimates for different operating environments such as ground, shipboard, air and space. It was developed by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) in conjunction with DoD Service Cost Agencies, and assisted by the SERC through involving the University of Southern California and the Naval Postgraduate School. The intent is to improve quality and consistency of estimating methods across cost agencies and program offices through guidance, standardization, and knowledge sharing. The manual consists of chapters on metric definitions, e.g., what is meant by equivalent lines of code, examples of metric definitions from commercially available cost models, the data collection and repository form, guidelines for preparing the data for analysis, analysis results, cost estimating relationships found in the data, productivity benchmarks, future cost estimation challenges and a very large appendix.SERCU.S. Department of DefenseSystems Engineering Research Center (SERC)Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC) Contract H98230-08-D-0171

Towards a Work Breakdown Structure for Net Centric System of Systems Engineering and Management

As the system engineering industry sees an increasing focus on the lifecycle development, acquisition, and sustainment of net-centric Systems of Systems (SoS), organizations find that current processes and tools need to evolve to handle the increased scope, scale, and complexity of these efforts. One such tool, the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is important in planning, monitoring, and re-focusing of program activities as requirements and goals of the program evolve. This paper provides an overview of the limitations of current standard WBSs with respect to SoS efforts and presents a proposed WBS structure that more adequately reflects the evolving processes and cross-organizational complexities

An Australian longitudinal pilot study examining health determinants of cardiac outcomes 12 months post percutaneous coronary intervention

Background Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a very common revascularisation procedure for coronary artery disease (CAD). The purpose of this study was to evaluate cardiac outcomes, health related quality of life (HRQoL), resilience and adherence behaviours in patients who have undergone a PCI at two time points (6 and 12 months) following their procedure. Methods A longitudinal pilot study was conducted to observe the cardiac outcomes across a cohort of patients who had undergone a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Participants who had undergone PCI 6 months prior were invited. Those participants who met the inclusion criteria and provided consent then completed a telephone survey (time point 1). These participants were then contacted 6 months later (i.e. 12 months post-intervention, time point 2) and the measures were repeated. Results All patients (n = 51) were recorded as being alive at time point 1. The multiple model indicated that controlling for other factors, gender was significantly associated with a linear combination of outcome measures (p = 0.004). The effect was moderate in magnitude (partial-η2 = 0.303), where males performed significantly better than females 6 months after the PCI procedure physically and with mood. Follow-up univariate ANOVAs indicated that gender differences were grounded in the scale measuring depression (PHQ9) (p = 0.005) and the physical component score of the short form measuring HRQoL (SF12-PCS) (p = 0.003). Thirteen patients were lost to follow-up between time points 1 and 2. One patient was confirmed to have passed away. The pattern of correlations between outcome measures at time point 2 revealed statistically significant negative correlation between the PHQ instrument and the resilience scale (CD-RISC) (r = -0.611; p < 0.001); and the physical component score of the SF-12 instrument (r = -0.437; p = 0.054). Conclusions Men were performing better than women in the 6 months post-PCI, particularly in the areas of mood (depression) and physical health. This pilot results indicate gender-sensitive practices are recommended particularly up to 6 months post-PCI. Any gender differences observed at 6 month appear to disappear at 12 months post-PCI. Further research into the management of mood particularly for women post-PCI is warranted. A more detailed inquiry related to access/attendance to secondary prevention is also warranted

System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace and Affordability (SQOTA) Project – Phase 4

This task was proposed and established as a result of a pair of 2012 workshops sponsored by the DoD Engineered Resilient Systems technology priority area and by the SERC. The workshops focused on how best to strengthen DoD’s capabilities in dealing with its systems’ non-functional requirements, often also called system qualities, properties, levels of service, and –ilities. The term –ilities was often used during the workshops, and became the title of the resulting SERC research task: “ilities Tradespace and Affordability Project (iTAP).” As the project progressed, the term “ilities” often became a source of confusion, as in “Do your results include considerations of safety, security, resilience, etc., which don’t have “ility” in their names?” Also, as our ontology, methods, processes, and tools became of interest across the DoD and across international and standards communities, we found that the term “System Qualities” was most often used. As a result, we are changing the name of the project to “System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace, and Affordability (SQOTA).” Some of this year’s university reports still refer to the project as “iTAP.”This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract HQ0034-13-D-0004.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract HQ0034-13-D-0004

SHON expression predicts response and relapse risk of breast cancer patients after anthracycline-based combination chemotherapy or tamoxifen treatment

BACKGROUND: SHON nuclear expression (SHON-Nuc+) was previously reported to predict clinical outcomes to tamoxifen therapy in ERα+ breast cancer (BC). Herein we determined if SHON expression detected by specific monoclonal antibodies could provide a more accurate prediction and serve as a biomarker for anthracycline-based combination chemotherapy (ACT).METHODS: SHON expression was determined by immunohistochemistry in the Nottingham early-stage-BC cohort (n=1,650) who, if eligible, received adjuvant tamoxifen; the Nottingham ERα- early-stage-BC (n=697) patients who received adjuvant ACT; and the Nottingham locally advanced-BC cohort who received pre- operative ACT with/without taxanes (Neo-ACT, n=120) and if eligible, 5-year adjuvant tamoxifen treatment. Prognostic significance of SHON and its relationship with the clinical outcome of treatments were analysed.RESULTS: As previously reported, SHON-Nuc+ in high risk/ERα+ patients was significantly associated with a 48% death risk reduction after exclusive adjuvant tamoxifen treatment compared with SHON-Nuc- [HR(95%CI)=0.52(0.34-0.78), p=0.002]. Meanwhile, in ERα- patients treated with adjuvant ACT, SHON cytoplasmic expression (SHON-Cyto+) was significantly associated with a 50% death risk reduction compared with SHON-Cyto- [HR(95%CI)=0.50(0.34-0.73), p=0.0003]. Moreover, in patients received Neo-ACT, SHON-Nuc- or SHON-Cyto+ was associated with an increased pathological complete response (pCR) compared with SHON-Nuc+ [21% vs 4%; OR(95%CI)=5.88(1.28-27.03), p=0.012], or SHON-Cyto- [20.5% vs 4.5%; OR(95%CI)=5.43(1.18-25.03), p=0.017], respectively. After receiving Neo-ACT, patients with SHON-Nuc+ had a significantly lower distant relapse risk compared to those with SHON-Nuc- [HR(95%CI)=0.41(0.19-0.87), p=0.038], whereas SHON-Cyto+ patients had a significantly higher distant relapse risk compared to SHON-Cyto- patients [HR(95%CI)=4.63(1.05-20.39), p=0.043]. Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that SHON-Cyto+ was independently associated with a higher risk of distant relapse after Neo-ACT and 5- year tamoxifen treatment [HR(95%CI)=5.08(1.13-44.52), p=0.037]. The interaction term between ERα status and SHON-Nuc+ (p=0.005), and between SHON-Nuc+ and tamoxifen therapy (p=0.007), were both statistically significant.CONCLUSION: SHON-Nuc+ in tumours predicts response to tamoxifen in ERα+ BC while SHON-Cyto+ predicts response to ACT